RealClearPolitics - Commentary - The Big Story of 2005 (Someone Tell The New York Times) by Austin Bay: "In December 2004, I wrote a column that led with this line: 'Mark it on your calendar: Next month, the Arab Middle East will revolt.'

The column placed the January 2005 Palestinian and Iraqi elections in historical context. These were not the revolutions of generals with tanks and terrorists with fatwas, but the slow revolutions of the ballot box, with political moderates and liberal reformers the genuinely revolutionary vanguard. "

Yes, the big history news is the start of democracy in the Middle East -- because of Bush's invasion of Iraq.

IRAQ THE MODEL: "This morning, al-Sabah published semifinal estimations of seat-allocations, it went like this:

UIA: 130 seats.
Accord Front: 42 seats.
Kurdish alliance: 52 seats.
Iraqi list (Allawi): 25 seats.
Dialogue Front (al-Mutlaq): 11 seats.
Islamic Union of Kurdistan: 5 seats.
Reconciliation and Liberation Front (Mish’an al-Juboori): 3 seats.
Each of Mithal al-Alusi, Risalioon (Sadrists), Rafidain (Christians) and Turkmen Front won 1 seat.
3 remaining seats will go to other religious/ethnic minorities, probably Mendaeen, Ezedyeen."

The number of seats reflects the power. Some 275 seats? The UIA is not quite a majority, alone. But pretty close. This is scary for the Sunnis, the Kurds, and the secular.

Iraqis Pummeled at the Pumps - Los Angeles Times -- the Stupidist way to cut subsidies: "Mohammed Rasheed Kabaan, 38, who owns a gas station in Baghdad, said reducing subsidies was necessary and would benefit the country in the long term. But the sudden and steep price increase had been a miscalculation, he said.

'First of all, people just came out of elections a couple of days ago, obviously hoping for some improvements,' he said. 'So it was very wrong timing…. They should do it gradually, explaining to people its positive impact.'"

It's like the bureaucrats want to cause the MOST pain in doing the right thing. Why didn't Bremer increase prices 1 penny a week or even per month? Why did it take so long to start increasing prices.

Big Bush/ Bremer/ IMF mistake -- the IMF should have required 1 penny a week increases for the next 2 years.

The Belmont Club: Who is a journalist? Wretchar thinks: "Ranting Profs comes close to the essential issue when observing: 'Finally, there's a recognition that the enemy is engaged in information operations, that there needs to be some critical reflection regarding what they do and how they do it, that there's a strategy underlying their behavior. On the other hand, that's treated with equivalence to information ops American forces engage in. The difference is American forces are trying to influence the way articles are placed by, you know, influencing the way articles are placed, while the enemy are trying to influence the way articles are placed by staging events -- meaning by killing people. It ain't quite the same thing.'"

There is a Moral Hazard in a Free Press.

Reporting on the war can be rated on a scale of Propaganda for the war -- thru balanced -- thru Propaganda against the war. The minimum US casualties occur in Public Relations for the war, the maximum in PR against the war.

I support balance, but this means more casualties than Pro-war PR. The anti-war critics don't want to face the truth about the effects of the PR against the war.

neo-neocon notes how Hitler got power: "We [the Communist Party in Germany] had refused to nominate a joint candidate with the Socialists for the Presidency, and when the Socialists backed Hindenburg as the lesser evil against Hitler, we nominated Thalmann though he had no chance of winning whatsoever--except, maybe, to split off enough proletarian votes to bring Hitler immediately into power. Our instructor gave us a lecture proving that there was no such thing as a 'lesser evil,' that it was a philosophical, strategical, and tactical fallacy; a Trotskyite, diversionist, liquidatorial and counter-revolutionary conception. Henceforth we had only pity and spite for those who as much as mentioned the ominous term; and, moreover, we were convinced that we had always been convinced that it was an invention of the devil. How could anyone fail to see that to have both legs amputated was better than trying to save one, and that the correct revolutionary position was to kick the crippled Republic's crutches away?"


Neo notes that pacifists also suffer this, and concludes later (read it
all!): "Sometimes trolls and critics here accuse me of naivete in believing there are simple answers that will inevitably fix everything. But I do not believe so at all. Rather, I believe all answers are complex and risky, but that can't keep us from our duty to try to choose what seems to be the best among them--even if sometimes that "best" is only the lesser of two evils.

Michael J. Totten says this about Istanbul: "Someone needs to force Hosni Mubarak to spend an entire month in Beyoglu – downtown Istanbul – so he can see more or less what Cairo would look like if it had decent management. Istanbul kicks ass, in other words, and I couldn’t help but compare it to the deplorable state of Mubarak’s broken capital city."

Turkey may deserve European membership -- will they let the Kurds leave in a democratic referendum?

David Corn: "The Bushies--with Dick Cheney beating the drum--are mounting the most extensive power-grab seen in decades. Yes, there is a war. Yes, Abraham Lincoln did suspend habeus corpus. Still, this band is fiercely challenging the general constitutional balance, and, worse, they are doing it in secrecy. Consequently, they are trying to prevent citizens from seeing and debating the arguably unconstitutional actions they are taking, supposedly in the name of protecting the citizenry. This is hardly traditionalism; this is radicalism."

David confuses judicial activism, done by judges in the judicial branch, with executive activism, the kind of power grab all executives and bureaucrats seem prone to. But the Bush power grab on survielliance is a small mistake -- because there is too little monitoring of the program, not because it is maybe not fully legal.

The Dems should be pushing to have an oversight committee review all the data mining requests, and especially have detailed records kept of who looked for what info; with frequent internal audits. Best with audits from different agencies.

David Corn: "This reminds me of a pet issue I adopted during the Afghanistan war. At that time, the Bush administration and the Pentagon often refused to acknowledge civilian casualties. Time and time again, a bomb would end up blasting apart a home, a business, a wedding reception, and men, women and children would be blown to bits. Rather than admit wrong, the Pentagon routinely denied any such thing had happened, often claiming that all its ordnance had fallen upon Taliban fighters and no one else. Reporters would then visit these sites, talk to eyewitnesses and local leaders (who usually were anti-Taliban) and discover that the allegations of misguided (and lethal) bombing were quite credible. Meanwhile, the Pentagon would ignore or misrepresent the facts as long as it could. On rare occasions, it might concede something had gone wrong. Then, the Bush administration would do nothing to make it up to the innocent victims. Concurrently, reports of the bombings and dead civilians would be broadcast far and wide through the Muslim and Arab worlds--often in far more explicit detail than an American would see within the US media. It's arguable that these images and reports had much to do with souring (or further souring) much of the Islamic world on the United States."

David has a true and serious critique here. Unfortunately, there is also little tracking, by year/month/week of the civilians murdered by Saddam. The failure to track civilian deaths then doesn't eliminate the correctness of tracking civilian deaths now, but it does muddy the issue some.

Civilian deaths is a negative to war; it's also a negative to non-war in China, Iran, Sudan, and Iraq under Saddam. Unless there is more call to track civ deaths in the other problematic areas, the conclusion is that this complaint is just more Bush-hate.

Michael Yon : Online Magazine: Montage Or Mirage: "The first from an un-attributed source, perhaps even a work of propaganda, shows people at their best, braving terrorists to vote in Iraq, then dipping their fingers in the purple ink, and smiling with pride, strength and hope.

The second montage by MSNBC, linked below, conveys the ultra-violence of nature against man, the cruelty of man against man, and helps explain why we want the world to be more like the impression we are left with after the “propaganda” montage. And yet, as someone who was out there experiencing some of what was depicted in both slide shows, it’s important to add that both are accurate in what they portray, while each is confined in scope. The difference is subtle, perhaps purely rhetorical. But the consequent impact, and how it influences public opinion, is something closer to cataclysmic."

The best propaganda is "true" -- but not the whole truth. Only one side. Like the MSM anti-Bush, anti-American, anti-progress spin.

We are making progress; the world is getting better. The anti-Bush spin is getting worse; but I hope Bush is starting to call it as it is.

IRAQ THE MODEL: "The election commission announced the results of voting that took place in military bases and 15 countries outside Iraq. The four major lists scored the following numbers:

Kurdish alliance: 176,361 (36.56%)

United Iraqi Alliance: 146,191 (30.28%)

Iraqi list (Allawi): 53,576 (10.11%)

Iraqi Accord Front: 23,409 (4.85%)"

Mohammed is keeping up with election results in Iraq. One idea is some extra seats from UIA (the big winners) for the losers. And early elections with more international monitors.

I don't know why there weren't more US Army observers -- it's really a mistake to have the US risking lives in helping "security" but not watching that the Iraqis watching the elections are avoiding fraud.

Marc Cooper - Meme of Four: "Four jobs you’ve had in your life: Assembly-plant worker; presidential translator; fishing-boat deck hand; reporter.

Four movies you could watch over and over: The Godfather; Casino; Goodfellas; Inherit the Wind;

Four places you’ve lived: Venice, California; Alba, Italy; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Santiago, Chile;

Four TV shows you love to watch: The Sopranos; World Poker Tour; Rome; Hardball

Four places you’ve been on vacation: (Other than Paris; Rome; Madrid; London): The Patagonia; Rosarito Beach, Baja California; Key West; Havana

Four websites you visit daily: My blogroll; Washington Post; New York Times; Romenesko.

Four of your favorite foods: Pollo Arvejado; St. Louis-syle ribs; marbled ribeye (medium rare); sushi

Four places you’d rather be: Under an umbrella on any Caribbean beach with white sand and turquoise waters; in any sparkling pool in the Arizona desert in the middle of July; on the stern of a sportfishing boat when the Yellowtail are wide open; on a mountaintop with a state-of-the-art six-meter ham radio station and a 6 element portable yagi beam antenna when the E-layer propagation is peaking.

Four albums you can’t live without: Johnny Cash, Live At Folsom Prison; Buddy Guy, Hold That Plane; Cream, Disraeli gears; Frank Sinatra, Sinatra at the Sands. "

It's good to personalize and know the honest Leftist. So I can disagree in an agreeable fashion.

Media Lies - -: "In the war on America, the New York Times is on the front lines. Unfortunately, they've chosen the enemy side. In a misguided concern for 'privacy rights' (oh how I rue the day the Supreme Court invented that right), the Times is working hard to expose and neuter the United States' capability to fight a war that is fought in the shadows using technology to avoid detection.

Today the Times has chosen to tell the enemy exactly where the NSA listening posts are located."

The Times is Bush's enemy -- and is allied with all of Bush's enemies. Is that support for terrorists? I think yes.

Grim's Hall on Christmas Eve: "It seems that way, on Christmas Eve. This has been a most eventful trip. I've had work to do, plenty of it -- more even than usual, when 'usual' is plenty. In addition to that, which I've tried to get done by morning and night, there's been family and visiting and many adventures. I mentioned the adventure of the crossbow, but not the wizard of broad brimmed hats (a gentleman of eighty, one of the last sixteen independent hatmakers in America; he cleaned and repaired my grandfather's Stetson and dated it to the mid-1940s based on the bash and the leather in the hatband). Nor did I mention rescuing the maiden (a young lady of five winters' age, who had managed to lodge herself knees-under-chin in a metal trash can. No, I don't know how). There have been other things too, which have filled both day and night.

I hope you're all having a wonderful time. Good luck to you all, and all you hold dear."

Grim has other interesting stories, like a ghost story of a Fire Department, a nice Christmas poem, and the fact that the banned Jamatal Mujadeen Bangladesh Islamic group pays monthly salaries.

normblog: "Susan Hill describes how she brought Book Crisis into being.

It has been a fun and a heart-warming exercise. And just as the work of Crisis does not end when Christmas is over, so I hope Book Crisis will carry on. Homeless people want to read all the year round.

If you enjoy and feel enriched by a good book, please think of buying a second copy and sending it to Book Crisis, 66 Commercial Street, London E1 6LT."

This might also be a good donation point for books you don't need to keep in your own library.

normblog: " This week, Freedom House released its survey for 2005. The survey grades each country (from a best of 1 to a worst of 7) and then simplifies these scores into a broader categorization of 'free,' 'partly free' or 'not free.' (For example, the U.S. and Australia are 'free'; Burma and Cuba are 'not free'; Turkey and Nigeria are 'partly free.') Because countries usually evolve gradually, not many of the numeric scores change in any one year, and even a rise or fall in a country's score is usually insufficient to move it from one of the three broad categories to another.

This year eight countries moved up and only four moved down in the Freedom House rankings. The report gives some credit to George Bush, would you believe it? Read the rest. (Via Kevin Drum and Tim Blair.)"

Ratings are great.

Dean's World - -: "At the Erbil Ministry of Culture's media hall, the Iraqi-Kurdistan Symphony Orchestra has just struck the final chord of the Kurdish national anthem, and the audience — Kurdish Christians and Muslims, Arabs and Turkomens, maybe even an Iraqi Jew or two, all in black ties and gowns — bursts into loud applause, foot-stomping and cheers. It's Christmas Eve in the oldest city in the world, and the city's million-and-some residents are in a pretty good mood. Maybe it's the successful election they had just two weeks ago. symph.jpg

Maybe it's the Christmas cheer of the city's sizeable Christian minority rubbing off on everyone else. Or maybe it's just that Kurdistanis love being Kurdistanis."

Kurdistan is coming, I hope it comes peacefully.

Austin Bay Blog: "I’ve had family and friends ask me why I volunteered. While the money is good, that’s not the reason. What is it that makes a policeman continue to work a dangerous neighborhood for insufficient pay, while some criminals drive expensive cars and have lots of cash on hand? What makes a farmer continue to hold onto family land, even though he barely breaks even? What is it that makes a volunteer fireman go into a burning house, for no pay, to try to salvage the possessions of a total stranger? It’s faith. It’s faith in your purpose for being on this earth. It’s faith that things will work out the way they are supposed to. It’s faith that what you are doing is right. How can participating in the liberation of millions be wrong? I have faith in this mission and these soldiers. That’s why I’m here."

Good vs. Evil / Right vs. Wrong. Faith and belief vs ... mass consumerism.

Austin Bay Blog » UPDATED: Merry Christmas/With a note from Iraq: "This is not a nation at war so much as it is an army at war. Service members and their families mostly bear the weight of the Iraq and Afghanistan missions alone — family separations, career dislocation and danger. Many soldiers are serving third tours, and there is no clear end in sight."

An army at war -- BECAUSE the anti-war Americans won't support the nation at war. Which might a good thing.

Amnesty for Illegal Wiretappers? Mickey Kaus: "3) that's probably illegal; 4) but it's also probably a good way to stop terror plots--it hardly presents a 'false choice;' 5) the solution is to make it explicitly legal--lower the standard for search warrants, allow mass warrants for whole bundles of phone calls, while retaining some judicial supervision. "

Mickey nicely reviews the wiretapping issue, and most of the solution. Make data-mining explicitly legal.

All explicit requests of any and all politicians and bureaucrats should be recorded, and saved in duplicate files, for later auditing. Names of those searching, and "how many" searches they did, should be produced monthly.